Dez Wells is a MAN

Lost a little bit in the hoopla of Xavier getting two guys ranked in the top 30 of ESPNs rankings is the improvement shown by Dez Wells since he committed last summer.  Here are some highlights from his junior year:

Dez Wells

Since this film, Dez has transferred to Hargrave Military Academy (David West’s old stomping grounds). It sounds like his jump shot has really developed and he dominated Oak Hill Academy in his first scrimmage this year putting up big numbers in points, rebounds, steals and assists. This guy is going to be fun to watch next year.

Season Review: Great Debut by Mack, Amazing season by JC

The 2009-10 season was another fun ride for Xavier fans. Things have kind of come full circle. In my season preview, I made the case for why this Xavier team could actually be better than last year’s top 15 team. When it took a while for the team to mesh and the losses began to pileup against teams without much hype, that seemed like a pretty foolish prediction. By the end of the season, in my opinion, there were not 10 teams in the country better than Xavier. Of course that is a tough statement to backup. You could point to Xavier’s #15 ranking on KenPom, or #19 RPI or wherever they end up ranked when the final polls come out, but numbers and stats don’t tell the full story of how this team came together and played some great basketball over the last couple months of the season.

Crawford, MANning up

It is interesting now to look back at those 5 non-conference losses. One was at Kansas St. Another was that son of a bitching at Butler. Those 2 teams are in the Elite 8 and one will move onto the Final 4. One was against Baylor, a Sweet 16 team that is expected to advance even further in the tourney. The other 2 were to Marquette and Wake Forest, seeded 6th and 9th respectively in the tourney. At the time, some of those losses felt bad and seemed like they came against mediocre teams. In hindsight, X’s only non-con losses were to some really solid teams. Teams that are proving how good they are right now on the biggest stage.

While scheduling a lot of nationally ranked teams and playing a lot of games on the road in hostile environments can lead to some early losses (especially in years with a lot of new players), it also makes Xavier just as “battle tested” as teams from the Big East, ACC, Big 10, etc. and that is clear when you watch the Muskies play in the NCAA tourney. There is absolutely no intimidation when it comes to playing these top teams anymore. I think that is a relatively new development for Xavier. As recently as David West’s senior year, Xavier seemed a bit intimidated going up against Maryland, an ACC team. Even during the magical season of “The Run” Xavier wasn’t exactly intimidated, but there was definitely a feeling of, “wow, we are playing an SEC team” or “holy crap, it’s Duke.” Over the last few seasons, that has completely and totally disappeared and the Musketeers are as confident and poised as just about any team in the country. They can go up against a well coached, tough Big East team seeded #3 and say we matchup pretty well and might even be a little more talented. It’s pretty amazing to see that and realize how far the program has come since I was a kid and X-Evansville was a big game.

I personally have some mixed emotions about the Xavier loss. On the one hand, it is a bit more disappointing than some other recent ones. Xavier was so close to winning and I truly believe if X could have got past KSU, this team would have beat Butler. The Final Four was right there and maybe for the first time ever, I thought it was realistic that Xavier could make it there. Butler and then someone from the OSU/Tenn/MSU/No. Iowa bracket….Call me crazy, but even making it to the finals seemed realistic.

Always sad to see a great season end

On the other hand, it is hard to be too disappointed. I said earlier that I didn’t think there were 10 teams in the country playing better than Xavier. However, Kansas State was one of those teams. When Pullen and Clemente are hot, there are only a couple teams in the entire country that are as good as KSU. When the shots are falling like that for KSU, they are a legit top 5 team (in my opinion) and played about as well as they can play and Xavier gave them all they wanted and then some. It is pretty impressive for a Xavier team that came into the season with a rookie coach, 3 new starters and that was nowhere near being ranked in the top 25 was out there playing one of the nation’s best teams and X absolutely looked like they belonged there.

Dear Lord, Please deliver Jordan Crawford unto us for one more season

More than anything, I just feel proud of the team and optimistic about the future. Xavier plays great basketball and they do everything right as a program also as far as all the off the court stuff. I don’t think that stuff matters as much in some instances, especially if you are a fan of a big state school that you didn’t attend. I mean you are a fan of the sports team. How much does anything about academics really effect you? With Xavier it is a bit different. In part because Xavier is so small. In part because most of the real Xavier fans are also alumni. And also because basketball plays such a crucial role in everything that Xavier is trying to do academically. Success on the court (and doing it the right way) is so intertwined with fund raising, raising Xavier’s profile nationally and everything else Xavier is trying to accomplish that this team’s winning has made an impact bigger than these kids probably know.

As far as future optimism goes, it really seems like Xavier is positioned awesomely to keep things rolling for many years to come. Of course any hope of a Final Four run probably depend on whether Jordan Crawford decides to return or not. If he does, Xavier will be absolutely loaded next year. I think he’s probably gone (if so, good luck, X nation will be rooting for you wherever your future leads). But maybe X makes another deep run without him. I know at this time last year, people were saying X’s only hope of contending was if Derrick Brown came back. He left and X was still very good. While Crawford was one of those once a decade type talents (like David West 9 years ago), Xavier is still in great shape. In the NCAA tourney, it is all about great guard play and even without Crawford, Xavier will have it. Terrell Holloway really grew up this past season and if JC goes, he should be the “go-to” guy next year. It is a comforting feeling knowing that we have a guy who is CLUTCH (great FTs at the end, there is no more pressure-filled situation in the game of basketball than what he faced) running the show. Dante will be back and he will be gunning for Jason Love’s all-time Xavier wins record. Lyons will be a sophomore and if JC’s gone, he will need to pick up more of the scoring load. Add in Redford, Walsh and 2 new SG/SF recruits and Xavier is going to be very deep, talented and experienced on the perimeter next year.

Jay Canty should add the wing rebounding X so sorely lacked this year

Speaking of the new recruits, I am most excited to see what Jay Canty can do. I personally believe that he will be able to come in and contribute immediately and that by next March, he will be getting starter’s minutes at the SF position (if JC leaves) and Dante will move to his more natural SG position. Canty’s an underrated recruit who could be a really big-time player for the Musketeer. The real question for Xavier will again be up front. Landing Kenny Frease was supposed to solidify the interior for Xavier for a long time but it just has not happened for whatever reason. It isn’t too late though. BJ Raymond barely played his first 2 years and then became a star. Jason Love and some other Xavier big men (Cole, Caudle, Duncan, etc.) all took a while to develop also. It is really all on Kenny to focus on getting done what he needs to get done to improve himself because if he does, Jamel, A-Tay and Robinson are back and Xavier has 2 highly touted PF/C recruits coming in. Depth upfront shouldn’t be an issue, but Xavier needs someone to step up and play like a MAN in that starting C position.

Even longer term, it will be interesting to see what effect this season has on recruiting. X already has a great 2010 class signed and with two super 2011 recruits committed, Xavier is halfway to its best class ever. The top remaining guy on Xavier’s wish list appears to be Jakarr Sampson from Akron and Xavier’s biggest competition may be Cincinnati and Dayton. Perhaps seeing those teams in the NIT while Xavier made another deep NCAA run will have an impact on Sampson and others like him (X is also in on some extremely highly touted guys in Indiana). The program is getting to the point where winning these recruiting battles is a lot easier as the Xavier “brand” becomes stronger and stronger.

Lastly, Chris Mack did one hell of a job as a first year coach. As I mentioned, X did not look the least bit intimidated going against these big-time schools and that all starts at the top with Coach Mack. With Mack at the helm and the G position stocked for the long haul with guys like Holloway, Lyons, Canty (2010), Justin Martin (2010), Dez Wells (2011), and Dee Davis (2011), Xavier should continue to be a national contender for the foreseeable future.

Congrats to Coach Mack, AD Mike Bobinski, Jordan Crawford, Jason Love, Terrell Holloway, Dante Jackson and all the other guys on an outstanding season. It has been fun to watch.

Xavier Wins, Weirdo Acts Weird

I don’t know what is more amusing, a balding columnist taking a shot at our coach’s lack of hair or the fact that this guy calls Coach Mack whiny in the whiniest thing ever written by a grown man. Of course, this gentleman doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Most of the great coaches and players all use disrespect to motivate themselves and their teams. Has

he ever listened to or read the greatest ever Michael Jordan’s Hall of Fame speech? Probably not. I don’t care enough to do anything more than a quick cursory check of the interwebs to learn about his career but my impression is that he’s one of those guys who thinks the public should care about what he writes because he is paid, not because he actually has anything to say. I’m pretty certain he doesn’t know a whole lot about what it takes to be a successful coach. Furthermore, he seems like the type who doesn’t really like sports enough to do research and write knowledgeable articles but simply goes for the pithy, substance-less, cliché filled crap that you often see from someone who has been a sports writer for too long.

Luckily, Xavier has been blessed to have a sports columnists like Shannon Russell who seems to enjoy what she does and puts out very solid and informed pieces on the Musketeers, even if you have to go to the web and not the newspaper to find much of it. (The Bengals Joe Reedy is another local guy who is finally giving Cincy fans some decent Bengals coverage, especially through his use of twitter.)

Crawford is amazing

As for the game, Brian Snow (another guy providing great X coverage) at Musketeerscoop nailed it in his preview when he said that Jordan Crawford would be the best player on the floor and that he would be the difference. That’s pretty much exactly how it played out as Crawford dominated the 2^nd half with one of the best tourney performances ever put on by a Xavier Musketeer. It makes one wonder what round Xavier would have to reach before Crawford isn’t the best player on the floor. I suspect he will be the best player on the court on Sunday against Pittsburgh as well (Pitt preview upcoming).

Beating Minnesota was a solid accomplishment for Xavier. Pomeroy had them as the 25^th best team in the country from a statistical perspective and some of their strengths were obvious watching the game. They are ranked as the 8^th best shot blocking team in the country for a reason and you could tell that the length of Sampson and Iverson inside really frustrated Xavier early (especially Jason Love).  X really struggled to get anything going inside and when the shots weren’t falling from the outside in the first half, Xavier had a tough time scoring. Mack made some great halftime adjustments and some outside shots started to fall as the game progressed, but Minnesota’s height advantage on the interior definitely made things tough for the Muskies. Overcoming those difficulties and finding a way to score despite the pressure of playing in the tourney was a real accomplishment for a young team with a newcomer on the bench.

Congrats go out to Chris Mack for his 1^st ever NCAA tourney win as the head man. Hopefully there are many more in his future.

Six seed?

Well, according to my extremely unscientific method, I predicted that a Xavier loss in the A10 semis would get the team a #6 seed. That seems about right to me looking at the resume. Most of the numbers (RPI 18, Ken Pom 23, Sagarin 18, etc.) actually make it seem like X could slide in as a 5 seed but the lack of real quality wins, especially away from the Cintas, probably drops them down a notch.

Anywhere between a 5 and a 7 wouldn’t be shocking at this point. Any higher or lower would leave me with some serious questions.

With the possibility of a 4 seed and an easy 1st round game out the window, it is all about just hoping for the best matchups at this point.

If anyone feels they have any better insight about seeds or an opinion on which teams Xavier should/shouldn’t want to see in their part of the bracket, please add to the comments.

A10 Quarterfinal Preview

#1 Temple vs. #8 St. Bonaventure- Temple is the heavy favorite against a solid Bonnies team that finally started to put it together down the stretch. St. Bonaventure has come a long way since the program collapsed a few years ago. To go from where they were to the very top of the non-tourney contenders (there were 7 teams with at-large aspirations) is an accomplishment. But the Bonnies are still completely outmanned against the top teams and Temple should cruise into the semi-finals.

#5 Rhode Island vs. #4 St. Louis- Rhode Island was in. All they had to do was not crap their pants down the stretch. Unfortunately those draws are milky as hell as it’s just rolling down their leg. Jim Baron is one more late season collapse from losing his job. Does Rhode Island have to win the A10 to get in? Maybe. Or maybe wins over SLU and Temple and a close loss in the A10 final would be enough. Either way, they have to beat SLU to even have a shot. Saint Louis was so bad in the non-conference that anything short of 13-3 in the A10 would have left them on the outside. SLU has proven to be the 4^th best team in the A10 and a real future threat (the guys who get minutes are all freshmen and sophomores) but unless they win the A10 tourney, they will have to look forward to what should be a great year next season. It’s unfortunate because they are playing really well and would be a threat to win a game or 2 in the NCAA tourney.

#2 Xavier vs. #7 Dayton- The tiebreaker of a season series that Xavier hasn’t lost in forever. Going into the year, Dayton was the overwhelming A10 favorite and they still are a very good team on paper. It just hasn’t all come together for the Flyers and they are in a do or die situation vs. Xavier. Dayton can still win the A10 tourney as a 7 seed, but they have really painted themselves into a corner. It could take upsetting Xavier, Richmond and Temple in 3 days to keep the Flyers out of the NIT. Unfortunately for Dayton, Xavier is going to be playing all out also. Not only is it a rivalry game, but X really needs this game for seeding purposes. (See previous entry, 7, 6, 5, 4)

#3 Richmond vs. #11UMass- It would be a huge upset if UMass was to pull this off. I’d like to give them credit for beating Charlotte but the Niners choked so hard down the stretch that it seemed like a middle school girls squad would have taken them down. Richmond should have a top 8 seed wrapped up and they have the potential to move all the way up to a 5 with a good A10 Tourney performance. Richmond should cruise into the semis vs. the winner of Xavier and Dayton.

So, Temple is a huge favorite early and will get the winner of SLU/Rhode Island. Richmond is also a huge favorite late night and will get the winner of Xavier/Dayton.

7,6,5,4

For the first time in quite a while, the A10 tournament is important for the Xavier Musketeers. Unlike last year where Xavier was able to lock up a 4 seed and easy 1st round NCAA opponent despite losing in the semis, the Muskies need a strong performance to justify a high seed. I am not a huge expert on seeding. For example, I can’t for the life of me figure out how Vanderbilt is seeded as a 4 and Xavier is seeded a 6 (Xavier has a higher RPI, a much harder non-con schedule, no bad losses like Vandy does and X is 11-1 in the last 12). That being said, my seeding prediction is a 7, 6, 5 or 4 for Xavier depending upon the outcome of the A10 tournament.

Seven- If Xavier loses their first game on Friday to Dayton, X should have at least a 7 wrapped up. Not bad considering how slow a start X got off to in non-conference play, but still a spot where their first round game will be extremely difficult and it would take a pretty big upset to make another Sweet 16. Everyone seems to have X as a 6 now and it makes sense that getting zero wins in the conference tourney and losing to the 7th seeded Flyers would drop X down a level.

NIT

Six- If Xavier beats Dayton but loses in the semi-finals (likely to Richmond), things probably remain status quo for Xavier and they remain as a 6 seed. The win over Dayton would help the RPI and even a loss to Richmond wouldn’t hurt things much. Plus, I have to feel X is probably closer to a 5 than they are a 7 seed right now so staying as a 6 would be possible even if they did drop down a few spots on the mythical S-Curve.

Five-If Xavier rolls through Dayton and Richmond and reaches the A10 finals it would easily justify that Xavier and Temple really were the classes of the A10. Xavier’s solid non-conference performance, lack of bad losses and recent tournament success (which technically isn’t considered, but doesn’t hurt) would make them a solid 5 seed.

Four-If Xavier was to win the “whole fucking thing,” the resume would seem to dictate a 4 seed and another relatively easy first round matchup. The other great thing about being a 4 seed is that it always seems as there are a couple 5-12 upsets every year. Meaning there would be a decent chance that X would need only to beat a 13 and a 12 (like they did last year) to reach the Sweet 16. Really, when you think of how much easier life is as a 4 seed is compared to how difficult life is for a 6 or 7 seed, you see why this tournament is so important for the Musketeers. Sure, they’d still have a shot at a deep run as a 6 or 7 seed (like they did during “The Run”), but it looks like a lot more realistic option if X puts it all on the line and comes out on top in AC this week.

Richmond Preview

It is amazing that the final big game of the regular season is already here, but it is. Xavier finds itself in the familiar position of jockeying for the top spot in the A10 and trying to improve already solid (5 seed in latest bracketology) NCAA seeding prospects. Below is a quick breakdown of the good and bad aspects of the game matchups against the Richmond Spiders.

Reasons to like Xavier’s chances on Sunday:

1. Rebounding advantage. Many of the teams who have given Xavier the most trouble (Dayton, Kansas St., etc.) are

McLean's rebounding has been huge during the current win streak

very good rebounding teams. Richmond is awful. One of the worst in the country. Xavier should be able to dominate the glass which means as long as X comes close to matching Richmond’s shot making (X shoots great at home), the Muskies should be in position to get the win.

2. Home-court advantage. Xavier has won 30 straight A10 games at home and has an overall home winning streak that is also approaching 30 games. Richmond has been great at home and put together some outstanding non-conference wins on neutral courts (Florida, Missouri and Mississippi State) but has been just okay in true road games with only one top 100 win (a squeaker over #75 URI).

3.  Nice defensive matchup for Xavier. Richmond’s offense is just okay (ranked 90^th). The one area where Richmond excels is that they take excellent care of the ball with their experienced backcourt. That makes them a tough matchup for teams that play pressure D and try to force turnovers (like Dayton) but that is not X’s game at all. Despite great overall defensive numbers, Xavier’s D has never generated many turnovers and that is by design. The D is predicated upon clogging the lane and forcing teams to take tough, contested shots and not allowing 2^nd chances. Richmond is extremely reliant on making jump shots as they don’t draw many fouls or get many offensive boards. Overall, a pretty good matchup defensively for Xavier.

4. Momentum. It is strange to say X is hotter than a team that has won 8 in a row but that is probably the case. Richmond’s 8 game winning streak includes an impressive 26 point win over St. Louis and a great 17 point win over Temple. However, it has been almost 3 weeks since Richmond has played a quality opponent and the Spiders haven’t been quite as impressive lately as they were early in the winning streak. Xavier on the other hand seemed to gain a ton of confidence winning at Florida. The Muskies followed up that big win over the Gators with a 36 point beatdown of St. Joe’s and then back to back road wins over Charlotte and Saint Louis. This 4 game stretch has seen Xavier playing their best basketball of the entire season and the team is playing with a ton of confidence right now.

A couple causes for concern:

Richmond's Justin Harper is a matchup nightmare

1. Big guys who can shoot. One of the things that has given X some problems this season is playing against PFs and Cs who can shoot the 3. Most teams struggle to defend tall guys who can step outside to shoot (for example Josh Duncan was a matchup nightmare for opponents) but that is especially true of this Xavier’s team. All of Xavier’s big guys struggle guarding on the perimeter and the early NBA exit of Derrick Brown has left Xavier without a big who can guard perimeter big guys for the first time in many years (Cage, Doellman, Duncan, West, Brown, etc.). 6’10” Justin Harper attempts almost four 3-pointers a game (not often you see a guy that big with more 3 point attempts than 2 point attempts) and will likely find himself open pretty often against X. He hits a solid but unspectacular 33% from outside and X has to hope he won’t get hot.

2. Three point shooting in general. While the most worrisome is probably the big guys, Richmond just launches a lot of 3s in general. Teams that play that style tend to be streakier but when they are hot, they can beat anyone. Richmond falls into that category which means they have a puncher’s chance against any opponent on any floor. If Richmond can shoot close to 50% from deep, they will score enough points that, combined with their solid D, they can really make things tough for Xavier.

3. Time to prepare. Richmond hasn’t played in 8 days while Xavier is coming off of a tough, intensely fought mid-week road game at St. Louis. Richmond is in a similar situation to Xavier a couple weeks ago when the Muskies had a full week to rest and gameplan for Florida while Florida was playing a tough mid-week road SEC game. The Musketeers came out ready to play while the Gators looked sluggish. X got off to a great start and never looked back. The rest factor may allow the Spiders to jump out quick against the Musketeers unless Xavier comes out energized right away.

Let’s Talk Seeding

The Charlotte win yesterday just about assures Xavier of an at-large NCAA berth. As mentioned recently on BlueXU, the one deficiency in Xavier’s tourney resume was a lack of solid wins away from the Cintas Center. However, back-to-back convincing victories at Florida (#57 RPI) and at Charlotte (#51 RPI) have put to rest the question of whether Xavier can win on the road.

Even before the Charlotte win, Xavier had the #24 RPI and had played the 23^rd toughest schedule. In addition, Xavier

Expect X to show up big on Love's senior day

still has nothing even approaching a bad loss. Looking at RPI, Xavier’s losses have come against #6 Kansas State, #13 Baylor, #14 Temple, #15 Wake Forest, #21 Butler, #35 Dayton and against #70 Marquette. By RPI, the Marquette loss looks much slightly damaging. However, Marquette is #24 on Ken Pom’s ratings and on pace for 10 wins in a loaded Big East so even that loss is not too awful.

As detailed in this morning’s article, Xavier has 4 games left with two tough tests this upcoming week and two easy games during the final week of the season. Xavier is expected to be favored by 20 points in each of the last two games (at Fordham (2-22, 17 game losing streak, lost to X already 108-60) and home vs. St. Bonaventure (10-14, (3-8 A-10))). Thus, for purposes of this article, it is assumed Xavier will win both of those final two games and the focus is upon how the results of the two big games this week against St. Louis and Richmond will impact Xavier’s seeding.

Of course, a first round A10 tourney loss may bump X down 1 seed and winning the tourney in Atlantic City may bump them up 1 seed (though the Sunday finish doesn’t help), but for the most part, we should have a pretty good idea what kind of seed Xavier is looking at by next Sunday when the results of the next 2 games are known.

Best Case Scenario, 5 Seed: Xavier wins out.

Winning out would give Xavier a 23-7 record overall and a 14-2 A-10 record. According to the website RPI Forecast, Xavier’s perfect finish would leave them with an RPI of 16.8. (RPI Forecast gives X about a 50% chance of winning out.) The sheer awfulness of Fordham makes it hard for Xavier’s RPI to move too much higher down the stretch but an RPI of approximately 17 would put Xavier right between a 4 and a 5 seed. 14-2 would also assure Xavier would at least tie Temple for the best record in a relatively strong Atlantic 10 Conference. While a tie for first (and a #2 seed in the A10 tourney) would be nice, a Temple loss in one of their 4 remaining games and an outright A10 regular season championship for Xavier would probably look a bit better on the resume and give Xavier an okay shot at a 4 seed depending upon how things shake out elsewhere across the country.

2^nd Best Scenario, 6 Seed: X beats Richmond, loses to SLU

As mentioned in previous articles, the strength of Xavier’s resume is based mainly upon the success experienced in a relatively strong A10. Though Xavier really challenged itself in the non-conference with a lot of tough road games, X’s best non-con wins were against #50 Cincinnati, #56 Kent St. and #57 Florida. Not exactly a who’s who of college basketball. Therefore, X’s final spot in the A10 standings is critical. Beating Richmond (currently 11-2 in A10) would bring a lot more benefits than just beating SLU. It would mean X will at worst finish tied with the Spiders in the final standings and probably give X seeding preference over Richmond if the two team’s resumes are pretty similar. Plus, it would be another top 30 RPI win for the Musketeers. A split with SLU/Richmond (and wins against Fordham and Bonaventure) would leave X 22-8 (13-3) and with an RPI of about 23. Despite the low RPI (94), a Saint Louis loss is in some ways more understandable as they have been beating everyone at home. Adding another top 30 win and assuring themselves of a top 2 A10 finish should be enough to get Xavier a 6 seed.

Alternative Scenario, 7 Seed: Xavier beats SLU, loses to Richmond

The numbers would be essentially the same. X would be 22-8 (13-3) with a #23 RPI. However, the loss to Richmond would be more damaging. It would likely drop Xavier into a tie for 2^nd or possibly even 3^rd place in the A10. In addition, it would likely give Richmond the inside shot at a 6 seed. While a loss against SLU on the road is somewhat understandable, it does not stick out as a big win on a tourney resume in quite the same way as a win over Richmond would. For these reasons, I think the split if it went down this way would be a slightly worse situation. Under this scenario, I see Xavier probably falling to a 7 seed.

Worst Case Scenario, 9 seed: Xavier loses to both SLU and Richmond

If Xavier loses both of their remaining tough games, they should end up at 21-9 (12-4). That would put their RPI at approximately #32. The musketeers would still be relatively solidly “in” though losing twice might get them on some of the “bubble” lists. An 8 or 9 seed would make it extremely difficult to do much of anything in the tourney though with a tough first round matchup and then a rested #1 seed looming in the 2^nd round. (If the unthinkable was to happen and X was upset 3 times, including once as a 20 point favorite, they may or may not make the tournament, but they wouldn’t deserve it.)

The Final Four Games

It is getting down to the end already. This season just flew by. Time to break down the final four opponents and take a guess as to the Vegas line on each game.

Overall, the odds say X has a 50% chance of going 4-0, a 33% chance of going 3-1, a 15% chance of going 2-2 and less than a 2% chance of going 1-3. If the thought of 0-4 even crossed your mind you deserve a Megliano style P-slap to your lady junk.

Black is slimming

At Saint Louis: Xavier 3 point favorites. This Wednesday the Muskies travel to one of the toughest place to play in the A10, the Chaifetz Arena in Saint Louis. SLU’s new building is a great facility similar to the Cintas Center and seats 10,600. While the Billikens have a strong 8-3 A10 record overall (with 2 of their 3 losses coming in OT), they are much, much tougher on their home court where they are 5-0 in conference play with wins over Richmond, Dayton and Rhode Island. Nobody in the A10 enjoys road contests there and historically, it has been tough on Xavier as well.

Saint Louis struggled a bit in non-conference play losing 4 times to pretty decent opponents and once to an awful Bowling Green team. However, they are an extremely young team made up entirely of Freshmen and Sophomores. In addition, not all of their players were eligible to start the season. Basically, they are way better now than they were in November and they are going to be pert near nasty in future years. Their leading scorer is Soph. G Kwamain Mitchell but their best player is skinny Soph. big man Willie Reed. Reed is arguably the A10’s best NBA prospect as he is projected to be the 15th pick in next year’s draft.

Richmond team touch

Richmond:  Xavier 7 point favorites. Sunday 2/28. The Spiders are the hottest team in the A10, riding an 8 game winning streak. They start 2 seniors and 3 juniors so they have a big experience edge on Xavier. They are a veteran team with outstanding guard (Kevin Anderson and David Gonzalvez are two of the A10’s best guards) play so they will not be as intimidated by the Cintas Center.

The good news for Xavier as far as this matchup is concerned is twofold. First, Xavier is dominant at home in A10 play. Xavier has won 30 straight conference games at home. Also, Xavier has won its 6 conference home games by an average of 24.5 points per game. In addition to the home court advantage, Xavier generally matches up well with the Spiders. The teams who have given Xavier the most trouble are athletic teams that hit the boards hard. Richmond is one of the worst rebounding teams in the A10 and X should be able to more than hold their own against them on the glass.

At Fordham: Xavier 22 point favorites. Wednesday 3/3. I would normally say this is a scary trap game. Xavier will play a huge, emotional home game on Sunday that may decide the A10 championship. They then have a quick turnaround to a road game on Wednesday with a pretty long flight. However, Fordham is awful. Xavier beat them by 48 a few weeks ago. There is no reason that this game should be close late.

Nicholson is a hidden gem

St. Bonaventure: Xavier 19 point favorites. Senior Day, Saturday 3/6. Bonaventure has been disappointing this year. After being surprisingly competitive last season, the Bonnies have fallen back toward the bottom of the league. Their only 3 wins are against fellow bottom feeders Fordham, St. Joes and UMass. 6’9” Soph. Andrew Nicholson is a special young player who should play in the NBA one day. He is a hidden secret nationally that only A10 fans know about. However, the rest of his team isn’t great and as mentioned above, X has been lights out at home, really destroying weaker competition. You’d have to think on Jason Love’s senior night, it would be more of the same.

Xavier’s Current NCAA Resume

Xavier has a weird NCAA tournament resume right now. Clearly, the team would be safely “in” if the season ended today due to three big strong points on the resume:

1. Nothing even close to a bad loss. One of the things Xavier has going for it is that it went out and really challenged itself by scheduling a tough non-conference slate with a lot of top teams. Nearly all of the best matchups were either on the road or on a neutral court and all of the losses occurred away from home.

Ken Pomeroy has Xavier’s worst loss being against his 34^th best team, Temple:

#9   Kansas State

Kansas St. is good

#14 Baylor

#19 Marquette

#28 Butler

#33 Wake Forest

#34 Temple

The RPI has Marquette as the worst loss and the only non-Top 25 loss. Marquette is much lower by this measure as it gets no credit for 1 point losses to FSU and West Virginia or two 2 point losses to Villanova. Despite that, they still have a respectable RPI of 64^th:

#7 Kansas State

#17 Temple

#19 Butler

#21 Wake Forest

#24 Baylor

#64 Marquette

2. Great record in a strong conference. Xavier is 8-1 and sitting alone atop one of the better conferences in the

Crawford has dominated at home

country. In the latest bracketology, the A10 gets 5 teams in the tournament. That is tied for 4^th best (with the SEC) among all conferences and more than the Big 10 (4) and Pac 10 (2) are currently getting.

The A10 has 6 teams in the top 43 of the RPI (Rhode Island (12), Temple (17), Xavier (20), Charlotte (34), Richmond (37) and Dayton (43)). Whether it was Temple over Villanova, Dayton over Georgia Tech, Richmond over Florida or Charlotte over Louisville, the other top contenders in the A-10 scored some nice non-con wins. Unlike most years, the top contenders all avoided major upsets outside the league and thus positioned themselves well for the conference.

Unlike most years, it is actually in conference play where X has scored its biggest wins with wins over #12 URI, #34 Charlotte and #43 Dayton the 3 best on Xavier’s resume.

3. Home court dominance. Xavier is undefeated at home. That includes a 5-0 A10 record that features the 3 aforementioned wins over Rhode Island, Charlotte and Dayton. Even when X was struggling to find itself early in the season, it was able to count on the home crowd and friendly rims at the Cintas. For the most part, the Musketeers have destroyed bad teams at home and came out on top in closer games against the better home opponents.

Overall, these strengths outweigh the weaknesses. However, Xavier’s resume does still contain one lingering weakness that could prove costly if Xavier stumbles much down the strength:

1. Lack of quality away from the Cintas Center. It is February and Xavier does not have a single top 100 win (RPI or Ken Pom) away from home. The best so far is probably at 11-11 LaSalle (#101 RPI). In the recent past, X has been extremely tough on the road and on neutral courts. Not so this year. Part of the struggle was due to trying to break in a new coach and 3 new starters early in the season against top competition. Part of the lack of a signature road win is just bad luck with last second losses to Wake Forest (double OT) and Butler (disputed call). Whatever the reasons though, X is definitely lacking in this category.

For now, the lack of a big road win just hurts seeding. But, if some of the strengths were to disappear (a big upset leading

My advice: Mouthguard, Jamel's coming for those teeth

to a bad loss and/or a fall out of the top 3 in the A10 standings) and X ended up on the bubble, all of a sudden this weakness would be glaring and a real cause for concern.

Looking Ahead

With the next 2 games, at Dayton and at Florida, Xavier has a chance to patch the last hole in its resume and finally get a signature road win or two. If the team fails to win at least one of the games, it puts itself in a tough position where one upset could put them in a perilous position on selection Sunday.